Tone improves slightly after initial jobless claims

Each week, the initial jobless claims report is a reminder of the K-shaped recovery. Millions of people have huge pent up savings that they’re waiting to unleash while millions of others are getting by on government assistance.

The drop in claims this week to 684K from 781K is a good sign that people are finding work but that number would still be one of the worst pre-pandemic numbers ever. What I am thinking about is fraud. Bloomberg wrote yesterday about large quantities of illicit claims.

Could that be making the picture look worse than it really is? If so is there scope for an even-larger rebound once everything reopens?

Those are things that don’t go into economists’ models and could put the Fed behind the inflation curve.

For now, the market remains in a sour mood despite and incredible setup for growth this year. The dollar has given some back in the past few minutes but it’s a small dent in the trend. EUR/USD fell to 1.1790 before bouncing back above the figure.

Tone improves slightly after initial jobless claims

A big driver today will be the 7-year auction at 1700 GMT

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