Assessing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, Rabobank analysts noted that EUR net speculators’ positioning increased sharply.
“Speculators’ net USD positions managed a positive print for the sixth consecutive week, though the size fell from the previous week. In the week ahead, news on Biden’s infrastructure and tax plans, a Fed policy meeting, Q1 GDP data and key inflation indicators for March will drive the outlook for the greenback.”
“The EUR appears to have finally caught a drift from the vaccine trade as the pace of the roll-out increases in several EU countries. The price activity in EUR/USD in the spot suggests that the EUR long positions could extend further. That said, the relative contained positions of Bund yields suggests that the EUR is unlikely to benefit from vaccine optimism in the way the GBP did in Q1.”