The Fed decision is on Wednesday

The Fed decision is on Wednesday

There’s a strong consensus that the Fed won’t offer anything new tomorrow. That’s understandable because all the communication before the blackout was consistent with a wait-and-see on inflation and the taper.

That said, a strong consensus is one of the most-dangerous things in markets and we’ll get Q1 GDP tomorrow ahead of the FOMC. It’s likely to be another very strong reading to go with a multitude of them in the past few months.

I’m sure there will be some Fed members feeling the pressure of higher wages and input prices. Combine that with all the enthusiasm in equities and the smooth reception to the BOC taper and there are going to be arguments for at least hinting at a taper. Those arguments will lose out and I don’t know if we’ll get a trace of them in the statement or press conference.

However they will show up in the Minutes released May 19 and that could spark some risk aversion then, particularly if the re-opening sentiment continues to improve.

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