Assam Exit Polls at 7 pm on April 29
Assam Assembly Election 2021 Exit Poll Live Updates: Exit poll numbers will soon be put out for Assam, where the ruling BJP is up against a grand alliance of eight parties including Congress and Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF. The BJP is confident of returning to power but the grand alliance too is equally confident of defeating the present dispensation. The alliance is banking on its combined power of vote share that works out as larger than the BJP if one takes the last election as the benchmark. The grand alliance has eight parties, namely the Congress, AIUDF, Bodoland People’s Front, CPI, CPI-M, Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation, Anchalik Gana Morcha, and RJD. The BJP has two alliance partners – Asom Gana Parishad and United People’s Party Liberal.
In 2016, the BJP had got 41.9 per cent vote share and 86 of 126 seats. But in that election, the Congress had gone sole and other parties too had contested alone, leading to division of votes. This time, however, all other parties came together in an attempt to prevent the division of votes against the BJP. If this calculation works as planned, the saffron party might be in trouble as its vote share might not cross 50 per cent. For BJP to win, there has to be a counter consolidation in favour of the ruling party and that may happen to some extent due to Congress’ alliance with Ajmal.
Four opinion polls have predicted an edge to the ruling party with projections ranging from 64 to 78 seats. This is less than what the NDA had got in the last election in 2016. The grand alliance is projected to get 48 to 60 seats.