By Tapan Patel
Commodity prices traded mixed during the week passed by with Bullion prices witnessing buying in last trading sessions. Base metals complex traded weak after China hinted to curb rising inflation. Crude oil prices extended weekly gains on a strong demand outlook and higher product demand after pipeline shutdown.
Gold prices traded higher with spot gold prices at COMEX rose by 0.67% to $1843 per ounce for the week. Gold prices at MCX ended in red at Rs 47,676 per 10-gram limiting gains from rupee appreciation. The spot rupee rose by 0.30% against the dollar for the week. Gold ETF holdings witnessed inflows as holdings at SPDR Gold Shares rose to 1028 tonnes from the previous week’s 1025 tonnes. The CFTC data showed that money managers increased their net long positions by 29452 lots in last week on hedge against inflation bets.
Silver prices ended marginally down with spot silver prices at COMEX held grounds above $27 at $27.42 per ounce for the week. MCX Silver May futures ended weak by 0.48% to Rs 71,085 per KG. Silver prices traded under pressure compare to gold following selling in industrial metals. The CFTC data showed that money managers increased their net long positions by 4397 lots in last week.
Bullion prices traded firm with gold prices managed to end in green for the second week after witnessing selling at the starting of the week. The precious metals rallied despite firm dollar and rise in bond yields showing rare parity. The dollar index ended 0.10% up to 90.32 mark while US 10 year treasury yields ended at 1.635% during the week. The bullion bulls were driven by inflation worries after US Consumer Price Index grew by 4.2% in the 12 months to April for its largest increase in almost 13 years. The dovish Fed stance and slower US economic recovery are the key bullish factors for precious metals. However, the central bank insists that these inflationary pressures are “transitory” and will fade as the economy makes a full recovery.
We expect gold prices to trade up in the coming week with COMEX spot gold resistance at $1860 per ounce and support at $1800 per ounce. The break above $1860 may lead prices towards $1890 levels. At MCX, Gold June prices have near term resistance at Rs 48,400 per 10 grams and support at Rs 47,200 per 10 gram. COMEX silver spot has near term resistance at $28.30 per ounce with support at $26 per ounce. MCX Silver July has important resistance at Rs 74,400 per KG and support at Rs 68,800 per KG.
(Tapan Patel is a Senior Analyst (Commodities) at HDFC securities. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)