• USD/CAD stabilises at the 1.2000 lows ahead of huge liquidity void.
  • Bears seek a run to test the 1.10 area on a break of 1.2000 as focus turns to BoC.

USD/CAD is currently trading 8 pips higher than the low at 1.2048 and down some 0.17% on the day so far following an offer from the highs of 1.2092.

The Canadian dollar edged higher across the board as oil prices climbed, with the currency staying in reach of a six-year high that was scored the prior day. 

The OPEC+ decision to stick to its plan to restore supply to the market gradually has supported one of Canada’s main exports. Also, the pace of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States is slow and markets expect demand for oil to outstrip sully as the global economy recovers at a faster than anticipated pace. 

Meanwhile, the US dollar is perky as well, recovering from a five-month trough versus major peers measured in a basket of currencies in the DXY index. At the time of writing, DXY is trading around flat for the day but had reached a high of 90.24. 

The dollar is getting some traction as Fed tapering talk picks up but it has also started to regain its footing as the FX market turns its attention to this week’s US employment data. 

Nonfarm Payrolls probably rose strongly by pre-COVID standards, yet analysts at TD Securities have a forecast that implies a still-sizable 7.7mn net decline from the pre-COVID level. ”The unemployment rate probably resumed its downtrend after a surprising rise in April.”

”While familiar ranges prevail across the G10 complex, we continue to keep an eye on USD/CNY for broader directional cues,” analysts at TD Securities said, ”there, the USD is on track for a third day of gains despite a fairly benign fixing overnight.”

Meanwhile, Sentiment is otherwise on a quiet day in terms of risk events and in the count down to the Federal Reserve’s  Beige Book at the top of the hour that is expected to reflect activity through around May 24. 

Meanwhile, Canada’s central bank has already begun cutting the pace of its bond purchases and next Wednesday’s meeting will be of major interest to traders as the expectations are for further action over the coming months, possibly as soon as July.

Nearer term, Canada’s jobs report for May is due on Friday which has shown surprising resilience in the past few quarters.

Combined with the recent jump in inflation 3.4% YoY that surpassed the upper limit of the Bank of Canada’s target range in April, a strong jobs report may prompt markets to price in an even more hawkish tone by the BoC at the 9 June meeting.

Moreover, the latest CFTC data showed that CAD positioning has moved sharply into a net-long territory, but some positioning may get in the way of further gains in the loonie in time to come. 

USD/CAD technical analysis

1.2000 support may hold for now but if it were to break below the May 2015 low near 1.1920, there’s a void of liquidity all the way towards the 1.10 area and then the July 2014 low near 1.0620.    

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